Finishing up maintenance tasks at Sunset Bay Marina in Stuart. Now on a road trip to Tallahassee to attend Grayson’s graduation from FSU. Back to Stuart on Monday and hoping to launch on 9 May.
I would like to make the entire trip on the outside. 5 days and done. To that end, Lisa will drop out and a couple of friends will come aboard. Lisa is good for one or two nights out in settled weather but is not fond of bouncing around in the Gulf Stream at night. Better she let us do this and relieve me of having to duck in to port before I might otherwise.
I will update this post every day or two and see how the weather evolves over time.
4 May Look:
As the departure date approaches, I can begin to see how the weather is going to play. The Florida coastal weather will likely force us into the ICW if we leave on Wednesday, or we can delay till Thursday and go out. Wednesday Winds N15G20kns with seas 5′ from NE. Not the conditions I would choose for a Gulf Stream ride. Would even make exiting St. Lucie inlet a bit dicey. But the 9th is still a ways off and the forecast models are not particularly accurate with a series of troughs in the area.
By Saturday, 12 May the winds up around Hatteras turn North, which would force us in to Morehead City if we do go out. But if we wait till Thursday we will not be able to get into Morehead City before the winds shift North.
If we leave Wednesday and go up the ICW, we will stay in the ICW till St. Augustine or Jax. That would be three days; Stuart, Melbourne, Jax. Then out.
Lets give this a day or two and see what develops.
5 May look
What a difference a day makes. On our departure date, 9 May, the winds are still a bit contrary to the stream, but at 11 knots, tolerable.
This is about my max for wind opposing current in the stream. And I don’t like the seas. But the seas referenced in the NOAA forecast are for the swell from the east, across our beam,not the wind driven wave from the NE, but NOAA doesn’t bother with those details. Regardless of these hair splitting issues, it will still be rather uncomfortable on Wednesday if the seas really are 5′. I will watch this closely.
But by the next day, everything clocks to south of east.
After this, the weather stays mostly favorable. Some stronger winds and higher seas, but from behind us, plus one mild trough to pass under off Hatteras, of course. All in all, doable. But I am sure this will all change before we leave.
6 May Look
Some improvement here and there. WindyTV shows a little less wind on the afternoon of Day 1 off Canaveral. This is probably the roughest sea state as it is wind opposing current in the stream. 10-15kts from ENE, not too bad.
The NOAA coastal is a bit better as well. A few 3’s and no 5’s:
Quite a lot of ifs in the shape of the trip. Hope the weather smooths out.