{"id":395,"date":"2018-05-04T10:19:09","date_gmt":"2018-05-04T14:19:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=395"},"modified":"2026-06-29T13:03:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:03:18","slug":"northbound-planning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=395","title":{"rendered":"Northbound Planning – 8 May update"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finishing up maintenance tasks at Sunset Bay Marina in Stuart. Now on a road trip to Tallahassee to attend Grayson’s graduation from FSU. Back to Stuart on Monday and hoping to launch on 9 May.<\/p>\n

I would like to make the entire trip on the outside. 5 days and done. To that end, Lisa will drop out and a couple of friends will come aboard. Lisa is good for one or two nights out in settled weather but is not fond of bouncing around in the Gulf Stream at night. Better she let us do this and relieve me of having to duck in to port before I might otherwise.<\/p>\n

I will update this post every day or two and see how the weather evolves over time.<\/p>\n

4 May Look:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As the departure date approaches, I can begin to see how the weather is going to play. The Florida coastal weather will likely force us into the ICW if we leave on Wednesday, or we can delay till Thursday and go out. Wednesday Winds N15G20kns with seas 5′ from NE. Not the conditions I would choose for a Gulf Stream ride. Would even make exiting St. Lucie inlet a bit dicey.\u00a0 But the 9th is still a ways off and the forecast models are not particularly accurate with a series of troughs in the area.<\/p>\n

By Saturday, 12 May the winds up around Hatteras turn North, which would force us in to Morehead City if we do go out. But if we wait till Thursday we will not be able to get into Morehead City before the winds shift North.<\/p>\n

If we leave Wednesday and go up the ICW, we will stay in the ICW till St. Augustine or Jax. That would be three days; Stuart, Melbourne, Jax. Then out.<\/p>\n

Lets give this a day or two and see what develops.<\/p>\n

5 May look<\/p>\n

What a difference a day makes. On our departure date, 9 May, the winds are still a bit contrary to the stream, but at 11 knots, tolerable.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n
\u00a0 \u00a0Meanwhile, we are just now getting the NOAA coastal forecast for Wednesday, 9 May.\u00a0 This is a snippet for 20 miles out:<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n
Tuesday<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Tuesday Night<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Wednesday<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.<\/em><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0Along the coast the seas are a little better:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Wednesday<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.<\/em><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

This is about my max for wind opposing current in the stream.\u00a0 And I don’t like the seas. But the seas referenced in the NOAA forecast are for the swell from the east, across our beam,not the wind driven wave from the NE, but NOAA\u00a0 doesn’t bother with those details. Regardless of these hair splitting issues, it will still be rather uncomfortable on Wednesday if the seas really are 5′.\u00a0 I will watch this closely.<\/p>\n

But by the next day, everything clocks to south of east.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

After this, the weather stays mostly favorable. Some stronger winds and higher seas, but from behind us, plus one mild trough to pass under off Hatteras, of course. All in all, doable. But I am sure this will all change before we leave.<\/p>\n

6 May Look<\/p>\n

Some improvement here and there. WindyTV shows a little less wind on the afternoon of Day 1 off Canaveral. This is probably the roughest sea state as it is wind opposing current in the stream. 10-15kts from ENE, not too bad.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The NOAA coastal is a bit better as well. A few 3’s and no 5’s:<\/p>\n

\n
Wednesday<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Wednesday Night<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Thursday<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
East winds 10 knots. Seas 4 feet.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Thursday Night<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Friday<\/b><\/em><\/div>\n
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.<\/em><\/div>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0Once these seas settle down we are OK till N of Hatteras, then some stronger winds override us from the south. A sleigh ride to the finish.<\/div>\n
\u00a0 So at this point I am leaning towards going out immediately at St. Lucie (Stuart). Should be somewhat uncomfortable till Thursday morning, but then OK from there. Still a few days to let all this settle out, but so far, I like the trend.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
8 May look<\/div>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0Looks good. initially lumpy in the stream off Florida, then goes L&V near Georgia. Short busts of N wind but nothing significant till we get near Long Island Saturday night and Sunday. This weather event is from the south, so no big deal, but it is arriving sooner and trend shows it getting stronger so will have to watch closely.<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finishing up maintenance tasks at Sunset Bay Marina in Stuart. Now on a road trip to Tallahassee to attend Grayson’s graduation from FSU. Back to Stuart on Monday and hoping to launch on 9 May. I would like to make the entire trip on the outside. 5 days and done. To that end, Lisa will … Continue reading “Northbound Planning – 8 May update”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1,74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-krogen","category-trawler-cruising"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":386,"url":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=386","url_meta":{"origin":395,"position":0},"title":"Privateer Returns – Gulf Stream crossing","author":"greg","date":"April 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"We left Great Harbour Cay Marina on Monday, 2\u00a0 April, anchoring out in order to get an early start for the run to Bimini. We pulled anchor around 6am and crossed over to Bimini, about 75 miles. Wind and a light chop from behind us made for a pleasant trip.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bahamas cruising"","block_context":{"text":"Bahamas cruising","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?cat=28"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/Dolphins.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/Dolphins.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/Dolphins.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/Dolphins.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/Dolphins.jpg?resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":233,"url":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=233","url_meta":{"origin":395,"position":1},"title":"Baltimore – waiting","author":"greg","date":"October 23, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"We are at Anchorage Marina in Baltimore harbor. Not quite the inner harbor but a local community called Canton. We ended up here as Lisa needs a few more weeks of OT for her tendon injury to her hand. Looks like she will be released on 1 Nov. so we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Krogen Trawler cruising"","block_context":{"text":"Krogen Trawler cruising","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?cat=1"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":191,"url":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=191","url_meta":{"origin":395,"position":2},"title":"Stuck in Newport","author":"greg","date":"September 20, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"We are sitting in Newport, kinda boxed in by Jose. And Maria is right behind. So we may be here for a while. Tempting to try and end run through NYC, but the Jersey coast isnt all that attractive either. As of 22 Sep we are still stuck here. Maybe\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Krogen Trawler cruising"","block_context":{"text":"Krogen Trawler cruising","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?cat=1"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Jose.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":246,"url":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=246","url_meta":{"origin":395,"position":3},"title":"Florida and warm again","author":"greg","date":"November 23, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Sitting in Vero Beach at the City Marina. Nice place, full of cruising boats getting ready for the cruiser thanksgiving feast. We have never been to this but it looks to be a big deal. Apparently lots of boats plan their trip south around being here at thanksgiving. We shall\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bahamas cruising"","block_context":{"text":"Bahamas cruising","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?cat=28"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":341,"url":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=341","url_meta":{"origin":395,"position":4},"title":"Manatee Love","author":"greg","date":"March 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"We are in Great Harbour Cay Marina. A nice, friendly place and totally protected. Weather drove us in last week. But as we got here my sinus headache took a turn for the worse. For the last few days I have been inhaling antihistamines and swallowing pain pills, but without\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bahamas cruising"","block_context":{"text":"Bahamas cruising","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?cat=28"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/beach-900x674.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/beach-900x674.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/beach-900x674.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mvprivateer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/beach-900x674.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":250,"url":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?p=250","url_meta":{"origin":395,"position":5},"title":"Vero to North Palm Beach","author":"greg","date":"November 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"We went to bed assuming the next day would be a lay day as the forecast was for thunderstorms. Not my favorite. But when I checked weather at 6 am, the worst forecast I could find was for 25% chance of showers. That's about as good as it gets for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bahamas cruising"","block_context":{"text":"Bahamas cruising","link":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/?cat=28"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=395"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/395\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":410,"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/395\/revisions\/410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvprivateer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}